abstract

Iran’s energy sector is characterized by its significant reserves, market dynamics, economic challenges, and political and global impacts. This paper employs an integrated, scenario-based robust planning approach t address Iran’s energy imbalance, which manifests as excess demand or insufficient supply of natural gas inwinter, electricity in summer, and gasoline year-round. By examining key uncertainties, constructing four scenarios, and testing various strategies against these scenarios, the robust strategies were developed for both supplyand demand in the oil, gas, and electricity sectors. Common strategies, such as price adjustments, were alsodiscussed. The analysis underscores the urgent need for infrastructure investment, technology adoption, diversification of energy sources (including renewables), and pricing reforms.

KEYWORDS

Energy imbalance, Iran, Robust strategies, Scenario planning

CITE AS

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2025.101817

link to the paper

link to the open-access paper